ELLIS against Covid-19

COVID-19 risk estimation from contact tracing data

ellis Lenka Zdeborova 06 May 2020 - 06 May 2020
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06 May 2020 • 14:55 - 15:10

Lenka Zdeborova (CNRS & CEA Paris-Saclay)

Contact tracing mobile applications are clear candidates enabling us to slow down the epidemics and keep the society running while keeping the health risks down. Most of the currently discussed and developed mobile applications aim to notify individuals who were recently in a significant contact with an individual who tested COVID-19 positive. The contacted individuals would then be tested or put in isolation. In our work, we aim to quantify the epidemiological gain one would obtain if, additionally, individuals who were recently in contact could exchange messages consisting of tens to hundreds of bits per day of information. With such message passing the risk of contracting COVID-19 could be estimated with much better accuracy than simple contact tracing. I will present our preliminary results, with the overall aim to provide quantitative analysis to inform the public discussion about the deployment of contact tracing applications.


Questions & Answers

Link to the recording of the live Questions & Discussion session for this talk. 

  • Q: Do you take into account the fact that RT-PCR tests have high false positive and false negative rates?
    • A: So far we are not taking into account the false positives and false negatives of the tests. This surely is among the things that one needs to take into account. As other kinds of noise to which the estimation needs to be robust.